Prediction Markets - Terms & Conditions Addendum

1. What a prediction market is

A prediction market lets players back the outcome of a future event. Markets run in one of two modes, and each market page states which applies. In a POOL market, every stake on an outcome joins that outcome's pot; when the result is confirmed, the winning side shares the whole pot in proportion to their stakes, less the stated rake on the losing side. In an ORDER-BOOK market, a player buys or sells shares in the outcome. Each share pays a fixed amount (typically 1 unit of the settlement currency) if the share's outcome occurs, and pays zero otherwise. Share prices float between the two bounds as players buy and sell. Prices reflect aggregate trader opinion and are not a guarantee, prediction, or investment advice. The platform is not a regulated financial market venue.

2. The platform's reserved rights

By placing any prediction-market order, you agree the platform has the right to:

2.1 Void any market at the platform's sole discretion

When the underlying event, data source, or rulebook becomes ambiguous, contested, or affected by force majeure, the platform may void the market. On a void, all open stakes are returned to the players and no fee is collected.

2.2 Reverse a settlement made in error

If the platform discovers a proven error in the resolution, it may reverse the settlement, claw back the wrong payout, and re-run settlement for the correct outcome.

2.3 Claw back winnings and original stake on cheating

When cheating is established - including wash trading, multi-account collusion, position-cap evasion, bot operation, exploitation of a software bug, insider information, or circumvention of jurisdictional restrictions - the platform may recover both the winnings and the original stake.

2.4 Ban any account immediately and without notice

For the behaviours in clause 2.3, plus any conduct reasonably classified as market manipulation, the platform may close the account effective immediately.

2.5 Aggregate position caps across linked accounts

The per-market position cap applies to the individual player, not the individual account. Multiple accounts traced to one beneficial owner are treated as one position.

2.6 Refuse, cancel, or withdraw any order or any market

At any time, without obligation to explain. The platform offers no execution guarantee and may pull its own liquidity from a market at any time.

2.7 Settle disputes internally

The dispute window described in the prediction-markets rules is the sole appeal path. The platform does not provide third-party arbitration.

2.8 No liability for external data sources

The platform relies on external oracles and assumes no liability if those sources are delayed, corrupted, or wrong. Where that leaves the question unsettled, the remedy is a market void (clause 2.1). There is one case where the question is not unsettled, and there this clause governs rather than the discretion reserved by clause 2.1. Where a question asks whether something will happen by a deadline - one the question names, or the market resolution time where it names none, and including whether a number will reach a stated level by then - a working source that simply never reports it happening has answered the question, and the market settles No rather than being voided. That turns on the source being available and complete. For a source that publishes a record only when the thing happens, available and complete means the source was up and publishing as usual: the absence of a record is the answer, not a gap in it. Where the source itself was down or its figures were incomplete, the market's own published rules govern how long we wait for it before voiding, and where those rules state no wait we wait up to seven days from the resolution time. This adjudication standard forms part of the rules of every market: on a question of the kind described above, where a market's own rulebook would refund because the thing it asked about did not happen, however that clause is worded, including one that turns on the source having published nothing, that clause does not take effect and the market settles No. On any other kind of question a missing announcement settles nothing and the rulebook applies as it stands. The same goes for a question whose answer needs a result to be declared at all, so that with nothing declared neither answer is true, such as whether the winner of a contest is a first-time winner. All other terms of every rulebook apply as published, and the rulebook itself is never rewritten.

2.9 Recover negative balances

If a clawback leaves the wallet balance negative, the platform may recover the debt via the same chargeback / collection process used for disputed deposits.

2.10 No representations about prices

Prediction-market prices reflect aggregate trader opinion. They are not a guaranteed probability, an investment recommendation, or financial advice.

2.11 Jurisdictional restriction

Per-market country allow / block lists may change at any time. Existing positions in a newly-restricted market are closed at the last fair price and any difference refunded.

2.12 Decline to honour positions opened in breach

Any position held by an account in breach of this addendum at the time the position was opened is not honoured; stakes on such positions are forfeit.

2.13 Platform positions in markets

The platform may openly hold a stake in a market under its named house profile. Markets where this is permitted carry a visible "House position" notice. A platform stake receives no preferential treatment: in a pool market it wins or loses with the pool on the same terms as any player's stake; on an order-book market it is placed only against prices already offered by other participants, pays the same fees, and is held to settlement. Settlement follows the market's published rulebook and source regardless of any platform position.

2.14 Attacks on the market assistant

The market assistant is provided to help you draft a market idea. Any attempt to attack, manipulate or abuse it - including instructing it to ignore its rules, to reveal its configuration or credentials, or to act outside drafting a market - closes the account immediately and without notice, and all funds on the account are forfeit. Every input to the assistant is recorded and reviewed by the platform, and an account closed in error will be reopened on review.

3. User-created (community) markets

Where enabled, you may propose your own market for other players to trade, in one of two shapes. A pool market is parimutuel: everyone who backs an outcome shares that outcome's pot. An order-book market, where offered, matches buyers and sellers at live prices, and you open it by placing your own two opening quotes with your own funds. In both shapes the platform never takes the other side of a user-created market. Proposing a market is subject to the following terms in addition to the rest of this addendum.

3.1 What you must supply

Every proposal must state a clear yes/no or multiple-choice question, a single named public source that will settle it, exactly how that source is read to determine the outcome, and an exact close time and resolution time. Markets whose outcome you can cause, influence, or rig are not permitted. Private circle markets are the one exception to the named-source rule: their creator declares the result themselves, every member sees that rule before staking, and the dispute window applies to those declarations in full. The adjudication standard in clause 2.8 applies to those declarations too, on the same terms: where the question was whether something would happen by a deadline it names, or by the time the market resolves, and it did not happen, that is the result rather than a refund. Where the true result is not one of the outcomes the creator listed, or more than one of them is true, the market is voided and every stake returned. Where the creator does not declare a result within a short window after the market resolve time, the platform steps in, voids the market itself and returns every stake.

3.2 Automated screening, then human review

Each proposal is first screened by an automated check and then reviewed by a person. The automated check looks at whether the market is, in plain terms:

• Resolvable - the named source is public and will objectively answer the exact question by the stated time, including what happens if the source reports nothing. On a question asking whether something will happen by a deadline, its own or the market resolution time, a working source that never reports it happening settles it No, and we do not accept a rule that refunds everyone in that case. Say separately what happens if the source itself is unavailable, which is a different matter;
• Unambiguous - it has exactly one reasonable reading, with an explicit deadline and timezone;
• Outside your control - the outcome is not something you can cause or manipulate;
• Safe - it does not involve harm to real people, illegal acts, private personal data, or anything that endangers the platform or its payment partners;
• Not a duplicate of an existing market.

Passing the automated check does not guarantee approval. Proposals are then reviewed by a person, except that creators with an established standing may have their markets listed automatically - instantly, or after a short review window - at the platform's discretion. Every market, however it was listed, remains subject to review, and the platform may decline, suspend, or void any proposal or market at its sole discretion. A creator with an open integrity flag is always reviewed by a person, whatever their standing.

3.3 The submission fee and when it is charged

A flat submission fee is charged only after your proposal passes the automated check, never before. The fee exists to discourage low-effort or abusive proposals.

3.4 If your market is approved

A pool market is listed for trading and the stake you chose at submission - the submission fee is its minimum - becomes your own opening stake in the market on the outcome you chose, so you are the first trader in your own market. As the creator you also earn a share of the platform's rake on that market, paid in the settlement currency after each settlement is finalised - unless the market opens with no house fee (under a fee-free window, or by the platform's choice for that market), in which case there is no rake and no creator share, and the market's published rules say so. Your share rate, and any limit on the market's total size, may depend on your standing as a creator - a record of cleanly settled markets raises both, and overturned or at-fault rulings lower them.

An order-book market opens with the two quotes you set when you paid, placed as your own resting orders; the amount held from you at payment (your quotes plus a fee reserve, with the submission fee counted inside it, never on top) funds them in full, and the fee reserve returns to your balance the moment the market opens. Your unfilled quotes can be cancelled at any time for a full refund of their unspent amount. As the creator you earn the share of the market's trading fees stated in its published rules - none, if the market opens with no house fee - paid after settlement is final; the market takes no rake. If you withdraw a paid proposal before review, or its close time passes before anyone has reviewed it, everything you paid is refunded automatically, the submission fee included. Nothing is withheld on either exit, because in neither case did your market reach the review the fee pays for. If a question's outcome is verifiably decided before its close time (for example a threshold is reached), an order-book market may be settled early at that point, as its published rules state.

3.5 If your market is rejected

If your proposal is rejected, what you paid is returned to you. The automated check runs first so that only a well-formed proposal reaches a person, and a good-faith attempt that misses the mark costs you nothing. The exception is repetition: a player who submits low-effort or frivolous proposals again and again may have the submission fee withheld, at the platform's discretion, and that is the only circumstance in which it is kept. Any amount you paid above the submission fee - the part of a chosen pool stake beyond the minimum, or an order-book market's held quotes and fee reserve - is returned automatically in every case. A rejected proposal does not become a market.

3.6 Optional extra liquidity

For a pool market you may optionally seed an additional pool in one of your site's tokens so traders using that token are not the first in. Any such optional token seed is charged from your balance only if your market is approved, and never if it is rejected. An order-book market opens in every currency the sites sell: your two opening quotes sit in the currency you chose, and every other currency's book starts empty until a player posts a quote. Orders never cross between currencies. Order-book markets take no token seed.

3.7 Creator conduct

All of the platform's reserved rights in clause 2 apply to creators in full. Proposing markets to manipulate, to trade on information others cannot access, or to evade position caps is a breach and may result in clawback and account closure under clauses 2.3 and 2.4.

4. Rakeback and rewards on prediction markets

Prediction markets form their own rewards category, separate from the casino category, with its own rate and its own tier multiplier. Both may differ between the platform's sites and may be changed at any time under clause 6.

4.1 Rakeback is paid on the platform's take, not on your stake

Rakeback on a prediction market is calculated as a percentage of the amount the platform actually retained from you, and never as a percentage of the amount you staked. In a pool market that means a share of the rake charged on your stake when your side loses; a winning stake pays no rake and therefore earns no rakeback. In an order-book market it means a share of the trading fee you paid on a filled order, whether that order won or lost, and only while the platform has enabled order-book fee rakeback. A stake that is refunded, a market that is voided, and an order that is cancelled or never filled all earn no rakeback, because nothing was retained.

4.2 When rewards accrue

Rakeback and experience on a prediction-market stake accrue only when the market settles and the result is final, never when the stake is placed. Where a result is later overturned, the platform re-assesses the rewards against the corrected outcome so far as they remain unclaimed; rewards already paid out, and any level, tier or milestone already reached, are not withdrawn.

4.2a What experience is calculated on

On a pool market, experience and level progress are calculated on your full stake, whether it wins or loses. On an order-book market they are calculated on the trading fee you paid, not on the value of the order. Progressing through levels does not by itself entitle you to any milestone payment; where a milestone payment is offered, its size is calculated from your activity across the platform's products under the rules published for each of them.

4.3 Deposit-linked limit

As with every product on the platform, rakeback and experience accrue only against wagering backed by deposited funds, and stop once that allowance is exhausted until further funds are deposited.

4.4 Rewards are not a return

Rakeback is a loyalty benefit calculated on platform revenue already taken. It is not interest, not a rebate of your stake, not a guaranteed or predictable return, and it does not reduce the risk of any position. Attempting to generate rewards through wash trading, matched positions across linked accounts, or any other artificial activity is a breach and is dealt with under clauses 2.3 and 2.4.

5. Acceptance

By placing your first prediction-market order, you acknowledge that you have read and accepted this addendum in full.

6. Severability and amendment

If any clause is held unenforceable, the remaining clauses remain in full force. The platform may amend this addendum by publishing a new version; continued participation constitutes acceptance.

Market pricing - including rake, trading fees, and spreads - and every amount a creator pays or earns - the minimum opening stake (the submission fee), the order-book fee reserve and minimum order sizes, creator revenue share percentages, the creator standing levels with their share rates and market size limits, and any discount for paying in a site token - are introductory and may each be revised from time to time by publishing updated rates. Fee-free windows and other promotions are temporary and may be ended, shortened, or changed at any time. What you pay for a proposal, and an order-book market's trading fee, are fixed when you pay; a market's rake and creator share are set when the market is created at approval, from the rates in force then; a fee-free window in force at approval removes the fee and the share. A market's own committed rules are never changed retroactively. The adjudication standard in clause 2.8 and on the rulings page applies to every market and is read together with that market's committed rules, which stay exactly as they were published and hashed.