Prediction Markets - Adjudication Log

The adjudication standard

A market resolves against the literal wording of its question as written at creation - not the creator's intent, and not what most people assumed. Where that wording permits two honest readings we void the market and return every stake: nobody wins on ambiguity. Creators cannot substitute a different source after the fact.

Where a question asks whether something will happen by a deadline - one the question names, or the market resolution time where it names none, and including whether a number will reach a stated level by then - a working source that simply never reports it happening has answered the question. That market settles No and we pay it. We void and return every stake where the named resolution source never publishes anything that settles the question either way, or contradicts itself, and the source itself was available and complete.

This adjudication standard is part of the rules of every market on the platform. On a question of that kind, where the market's own rulebook would refund because the thing it asked about did not happen, however that clause is worded, including one that turns on the source having published nothing, the clause does not take effect and the market settles on the answer that turned out true, which on a yes-or-no market is No. On any other kind of question - who wins, which one, what the total was - a missing announcement settles nothing and the rulebook applies as it stands. The same goes for a question whose answer needs a result to be declared at all, so that with nothing declared neither answer is true, such as whether the winner of a contest is a first-time winner. Every other rule stands exactly as published: we never rewrite the rulebook itself.

The exception turns on the source being available and complete. If the source itself was down, or its figures were incomplete, that is not a No. For a source that publishes a record only when the thing happens, available and complete means the source was up and publishing as usual: the absence of a record is the answer, not a gap in it. Where the source did fail, we wait as long as that market's own published rules say to wait, and where they say nothing we wait up to seven days from the resolution time before voiding. Whoever rules records which of the two it was and what they saw, and where a ruling is disputed that reasoning is published on this page.

We also void where a result is a push or dead heat the rules do not say how to grade, where the event was cancelled or postponed past the deadline so the question was never put to the test, and on a multiple-choice market where none of the listed answers turns out to be true, or where more than one of them does. One caution on cancellation: where the question was simply whether the event would happen, calling it off is the event not happening, which settles No.

A dispute ends one of three ways. Upheld: the original resolution stands and we keep the disputer's fee. Overturned: we pay the corrected outcome and the creator takes the heavier mark on their record. Voided: we return all stakes and the creator takes the lighter mark.

Rulings

Most recent rulings first.

No rulings have been published yet.